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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."